Greiner Innoventures
Greiner Innoventures

Introduction

Foresight requires

Analysis

INTRODUCTION

At Greiner Innoventures, we deploy strategic foresight as an interpretive framework to anticipate the complex interplay of global trends and emerging drivers of change. Furthermore, it allows us to derive the potential consequences of these intersecting forces. Strategic foresight provides the intellectual and creative space to ask „what if“ questions that challenge our established assumptions about the expected future. As a cornerstone of Greiner Innoventures processes, foresight infuses nonlinear and creative thinking, which lays the ground for our business incubation and venturing activities.

 

As in previous editions, this year’s Greiner Signal Radar builds its analysis of the future in several stages. For this issue, we focus particularly on the healthcare and diagnostics sector, as this is one of the main sectors in which Greiner offers its products, but also, as it is one of the sectors that has been shaken up the most in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a catalyst for the transformations experienced by the sector. But in addition to this, and behind the scenes of the virus, we find technological advances, changes in society and in our perspective of welfare, climate change -as an imperative of our time- and the political decisions that are made around these factors. All these entrenched components are evidence of a dynamic sector, facing great challenges, but also tremendous opportunities, which will remain turbulent in the years to come.

 

METHODOLOGY

Our analysis starts by defining the future playground, a set of questions of interest delimiting the scope and the reach of our search. As aforementioned, this year´s report revolves around the future of healthcare and the forces transforming the diagnostics industry.

  1. What are major transformations happening in the healthcare industry
  2. what are the drivers pushing these transformations forward, and
  3. How do they influence blood-based diagnostics?
  4. How could blood diagnostics change?
  5. What capabilities do we need to compete in the future?

 

After setting the scope, we examine the major structural forces of demographics, environment, economics, and technology that are shaping the contours of our world (see Structural Forces).

 

Through an extensive review of past studies and emerging signals, we analyze how these structural forces, combined with technological developments and the dynamics of societies, consolidate into trends that ultimately affect the course of healthcare and diagnostics. We have documented 14 industry-relevant trends, which are to be understood as a supplement to the hypotheses, so to speak. We would be pleased if you would provide us with feedback and succeed in helping to shape the future of diagnostics through the exchange of opinions and experiences.

 

Lastly, we envisage hypotheses and illustrated scenes of the distant future 2036. These hypotheses are derived from our analysis and from discussions with a group of experts, who challenged our propositions or provided a new perspective.

 

Plausible (futures) answers to questions a to d are shown throughout this report. The answer to question e relates to our strategic actions in the face of foreseeable changes and is the subject of an ongoing assessment that is embodied in Greiner Innoventures‘ incubation and venturing activities. Curious about our incubation and venturing practices?

 

Go to

greiner-innoventures.com

 

We would like to thank the panel of experts for taking the time to speak with us and for contributing their knowledge and experience.

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